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Mar 13, 20195 min read

Transatlantic Relations in the Trump Era: European Horizons Asks “What Next?”

Updated: Mar 16, 2019

by Sarah Hickey (EU International Relations and Diplomacy Studies)


European Horizons’ College of Europe Chapter’s upcoming conference on ‘Perspectives on the Future of Transatlantic Relations in the Trump Era’ is due to take place on March 16th 2019. Registration for the event is required.


European Horizons is a student-led thinktank and global network connecting students and young professionals advocating for further European integration and deeper transatlantic relations. In this article, co-director of conferences, Sarah Hickey, reflects on the current state of transatlantic relations and introduces the conference.



US Vice President Mike Pence and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the annual Munich Security Conference held from February 15th-17th. Matthias Schrader/Associated Press.

Transatlantic relations today are increasingly dominated by two contrasting visions for the international order; that held by the European Union of effective multilateralism, constructive dialogue, and principled pragmatism[1] versus that propagated by the Trump administration, opposing multilateral cooperation and instead glorifying an isolationist approach. Illustrating this dissonance, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the German Marshall Fund in December 2018, claimed that “multilateralism has too often become viewed as an end unto itself”, adding: “We won the Cold War. We won the peace. This is the type of leadership that President Trump is boldly reasserting.”[2] How can transatlantic cooperation be furthered in this antagonistic context? What does the future look like?


Among perspectives currently circulating, the New York Times has recently suggested that Europeans increasingly “believe that relations with the United States will never be the same again”.[3] Karl Kaiser of the Harvard Centre for European Studies has argued that “two years of Mr Trump, and a majority of French and Germans now trust Russia and China more than the United States”. But has the world order truly shifted so dramatically? Has Pax Americana officially ended? Does, and/or will, transatlantic cooperation exist only in theory? If such statements are accurate, there are real ramifications for both the USA and EU – let alone for the rest of the world – that will require new ways of thinking and real problem-solving abilities.


SECURITY DIVERGENCE


Issues that have taken centre stage in recent times have included both security- and trade-related concerns. Speaking at the recent Munich Security Conference in February 2019, US Vice President Mike Pence urged European allies to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, declared that the split over Iran “depresses me very much”, adding: “The only question that stands between us on this issue is, do we help our common cause, our common aim of containing the damaging or difficult development of Iran, by withdrawing from the one remaining agreement? Or do we help it by keeping the small anchor we have in order maybe to exert pressure in other areas?”[3]


NATO cooperation has been another transatlantic sticking point with the current US presidency. Donald Trump has tweeted repeatedly about his desire for other NATO member states to contribute more funds to the organisation.




This came to a head in January this year when the prospect of the US leaving NATO altogether was bandied about. Nevertheless, both Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton have emphasised the importance of the alliance in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine.[5] Clashes on NATO and the Iran nuclear deal represent only two issues in a web of transatlantic security-related disagreements.


ECONOMIC DIVERGENCE


Representing the world’s two largest economies, the state of trade relations between the EU and the USA has implications for the rest of the world. While negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have stalled, there are increasing discussions of a possible ‘trade war’ between the two partners. Margaritis Schinas, a spokesperson for the European Commission, has stated that the EU would “react in a swift and adequate manner” if the US follows through on Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on car imports.[6] It has prepared tariffs to be applied to €20 billion ($23 billion) in US goods. This comes amidst a wider context of the US’s ongoing trade war with China. That this narrative is now being expanded to close allies of the US in the EU indicates a significant shift in transatlantic trade relations. Once again, TTIP and the prospect of a trade war are merely two of the multiple trade-related concerns at hand.


MOVING BEYOND THE HERE AND NOW


The current divergent state of transatlantic relations leads to the question: what next? Is transatlantic cooperation over or does space remain for collaboration despite, and even amidst, these US-EU differences? On March 16th, European Horizons’ College of Europe Chapter has the pleasure to invite you to a multi-topic conference dealing with this very subject: “Perspectives on the Future of Transatlantic Relations in the Trump Era”.

Our high-level speakers will address challenges faced by the transatlantic partnership, with a particular focus on security and trade. We will be joined by:


Ø Former US Ambassador to the EU, Anthony Gardner – appointed by President Obama, serving from 2014 to 2017.

Ø Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former US diplomat of 30 years, Peter Chase.

Ø Professor Emiliano Alessandri, Senior External Cooperation Officer of the OSCE, senior transatlantic fellow of the German Marshall Fund, and research associate of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.

Ø Professor Stefan Fröhlich, political scientist and professor at the University of Erlangen-Nürnberg and the College of Europe.

Ø Professor Dr Alexander Mattalaer, academic director of the Institute for European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit and visiting professor at the College of Europe.


The audience will be invited to contribute to discussions to build common reflections on the future of EU-US relations in these uncertain times. The conference will be followed by a reception, a great opportunity to meet the speakers and others in attendance.


CONFERENCE AGENDA


The conference will be held from 13:50 to 17:00. The agenda is as follows:

14:00-14:30 Trade Discussion:

i. State of play in tariff negotiations between the EU and the US.

ii. Is there still room in the future for regulatory alignment?

iii. Non-tariff barriers and regulatory alignment: A regulatory gap between the US and EU in policy areas such as agriculture, the environment?

14:30-15:00 Q&A followed by a 5-minute break

15:05-15:35 Security Discussion:

i. The meaning of European ‘strategic autonomy’: How do policy-makers in the US interpret this and to what extent are they supportive of it?

ii. US-EU cooperation on cyber and hybrid threats: How is this different to cooperation within NATO?

15:35-16:05 Q&A

16:05-17:00 Reception


If you would like to attend this event, please register on the College of Europe intranet before the 14th March at 12:00 (noon). You can find all the details on the Facebook event page.


In the meantime, be sure to check out European Horizons’ call for research papers. The topic for this year is “Transatlantic Relations in the Trump Era: Prospects for Change”. If you are interested in having your work on transatlantic relations published at an internationally recognised think tank, we would love to hear from you. Collected papers will be published by the College of Europe’s European Horizons Chapter and contributors will be asked to present their projects at a special event in spring 2019. Exceptional contributions may be sent to European Horizons HQ to be considered for publication in their academic journal RETA (Review of European and Transatlantic Affairs). More information on how to apply is available on our Facebook page here.


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For the latest updates on all our activities, follow the College of Europe’s European Horizons Chapter on Facebook here.







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